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Post by The Ghost on Mar 19, 2014 5:47:32 GMT
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Mar 19, 2014 11:39:53 GMT
Ok, this is probably the hardest round to have a mandatory trade given the likely tribe swap but I have 5 trades in hand so I'm well placed to navigate through to a merge. JTia was a good earner and so I get a healthy 5 dollar balance- lucky for me that Tony had his worst episode scoringwise last week and had a price fall. So
I will do a straight trade JTia for Tony. Kass sucks, so I realistically didn't have much choice anyway.
Interestingly, the prices are very 2 speed with 7/15 priced at least at the maximum original price of a survivor and 6 at $2 or less. I am currently in pretty good shape with 4 in the first group and only Cliff and Alexis in the low group. The top tier teams probably bought Spencer instead of Cliff to start with and maybe got Morgan over Alexis too.
Strategy suggests that I keep Sarah as captain as she has been a very reliable choice so far, plus Tony and LJ have idols and so if one of them get voted out that's a MAJOR point wastage. I hope LJ sticks around for a while and keeps his high value as if he starts bombing I'll regret not capitalising on his price rise - plus if my assumption about high scoring teams is correct and LJ does keep scoring highly it should mean that the Spencer owners fall down the ladder which should open me up to a surge. If a swap/merge happens this week or next week it should mean that the brains members slide in value as a result of being a part of a larger tribe and getting less screen time. So, I'd optimistically suggest that LJ is more likely to continue his run than Spencer- especially due to the Malcolm/Denise comeback and Cochrans win in Caramoan which all the players watched before going out there.
Just an aside, I was close to swapping Woo for Cliff last week, but luckily for me I didn't and Cliff actually scored more than Woo. Every point counts and the minor wins I'm making now are going to help me down the track.
Also, dream team aside - I'm really loving this season and the cast is really good. I've been surprised at how well Spencer and Morgan in particular have been playing. Woo, Sarah, LJ and Tash have all lived up to my high expectations and my other preseason favourite, Alexis hasn't been seen much but has shown promise early particularly by orchestrating a 2-2-2 split.
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Mar 19, 2014 11:46:23 GMT
Wow, that was a long post!
At least you can see that I'm playing the game even by not making the trades which I'm sure others have been. Definitely looking forward to comparing notes with what the the top teams have been posting at the end or the season.
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Post by The Ghost on Mar 19, 2014 12:02:14 GMT
Updated.
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Post by The Ghost on Mar 25, 2014 7:54:59 GMT
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Mar 26, 2014 10:23:30 GMT
Ok, trade out Cliff and trade in Woo. Of anyone,I think Woo is the biggest darkhorse to win and I reckon he has a huge chance of at least making the finale. It's probably about an episode too early to start transitioning from character players to those with a good shot at winning. But my enforced trade situation basically means that I can't really aim for shorter term dynamic players like I did with Tony last week and need to really minimise the risk of enforced trades and shoot for longer term stability over short term stardom. If I still had all my trades in hand I'd probably trade in Trish trying to maximise on her coming into power.
From a premiership standpoint, it seems like my initial strategy of minimising trades is starting to payoff with at least one team already out of trades, so as I've continued to maintain a moderate 13th place for a while now I am still close enough for a post merge surge based on last season. Its easiest to make up ground later on in the game as people gamble more and run low on trades so if I can keep steady with the trades until about final 7ish I will be able to take my own risks without the chance of being left stranded without a full tribe at the all important finale.
Captaincy-wise, I know Sarah has proven to be reliable, but by changing my captain to a purple member should give me more of a short term edge based on their strength in challenges, reduced number compared to the oranges and the fallout from last week.
Captaincy change to Mr Zoolander himself, Tooonnny!
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Post by The Ghost on Mar 26, 2014 11:32:37 GMT
Updated
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Mar 29, 2014 11:48:30 GMT
Good news for the week is that I had the biggest climb of anyone as I rose into 7th. Also, I've scored the 3rd highest of anyone in the premiership, despite only sitting mid table within my own league. After a shaky start, I'm improving and with every major player in my team except Spence I'm pretty well placed to keep rising. So with trades currently in hand, I am on track to qualify for the super 6 stage.
Bad news is that I have had 3 enforced trades in a row.
Regarding trades, the additional trade will kick in from next round (final 10) I assume?
Also, are team sizes being reduced at some stage? And just clearing it up that I will still be able to trade voted out players into the post merge?
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Post by The Ghost on Mar 30, 2014 3:11:30 GMT
Yep, the bonus trade will come after the merge episode, so it looks like after the next episode.
Team sizes will remain at 6. Anyone out of the game post-merge stays on your tribe, they cannot be traded out. Jury members can still score, but obviously ability to score is limited.
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Post by The Ghost on Apr 2, 2014 3:03:02 GMT
Bobby Boucher, just a reminder that Alexis is a non-scoring player in your tribe if not traded out.
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Apr 2, 2014 10:15:49 GMT
Trade Alexis for Morgan. Regardless of pricing, after her role last week I would have tried to get Morgan my tribe. So I'm pretty well placed now.
The merge is upcoming and so it looks like pretty much anyone is a chance of leaving this week- due to his idollery I can't carry Tony as captain due to the massive loss of points I'd suffer if he were to get blindsided. I'll change captain back to trusty Sarah for this week.
From here on in its anyone's game on both Survivor and here in dreamteam- only Trish can't win the game from here.
As for dreamteam, if I can keep all my 6 until the final 6 I will win given my current spot at 7th. Trades are now about avoiding the all important vote and preserving numbers rather than aiming for the dynamic JTia like characters.
LJ looks good to go deep via a combo of alliances, challenge wins and idol play
Sarah looks set to be the swing vote and so should be good to last for at least a couple of weeks, not to mention her being a hardcore challenge player.
Tony is looking either very good or very bad at varying points this season, he flipped things from being at the bottom of the brawns to at the top and has an idol- but he has possibly overplayed a bit so that's a bit of a concern.
Morgan is a surprise packet- she looks safe for a couple of weeks given how things sit. She could really do anything from here on
Woo is a smart guy. He is being underestimated due to his chilled approach, but he's strong in especially water challenges and has a fluid approach to voting blocs as well as being well liked. He's looking like he could go deep
Tasha is in a pretty good spot right now- she's part of a solid alliance which dictated the last vote. Jeremiah and Spencer are bigger threats from her tribe and so she's looking quite safe.
Also, I'll just say poor Team Zissou for having all of the bottom 6 last week. That is a tough spot to have yourself stuck in- poor Rafe also, to go from the clear season 1 winner to at the bottom now must be a pretty big shock. I'd guess that they just picked the wrong people to start with and struggled from then on.
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Post by The Ghost on Apr 2, 2014 13:00:15 GMT
Updated
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Apr 7, 2014 16:21:35 GMT
Good news for the week is that I've continued my rise up the ladder and now have the highest score of the premiership league and am now 6th overall.
Just wondering if the bonus post merge trade has any bonus powers or if its just a regular kind of trade?
Also should my bank balance be 1 or 0 as I can't remember Alexis's value when I traded her out compared to Morgans value.
This week I'll revert back to Tony as the captain given Sarah's elimination. Morgan has scored low for a couple of weeks in a row and so is probably due for a big score soon. The same can be said for Tasha - both of them started strongly but have given way to the likes of Spencer and Tony lately. Woo is in a great spot, while after last week, LJ is now looking a lot more secure.
Last week I said that Trish can't win, but I will take that back now and replace her with Kass. Trish convinced Tony to flip at the switch, which benefited her moreso than him and she eliminated both rivals in Cliff and Lindsey. Now she has convinced a BRAIN member to flip when it wasn't in Kass's best interests and once again benefited Trish moreso than the person who flipped. Now Kass's chances of winning the game are fried.
As for DT, if I can avoid someone from my team being eliminated for the 5th consecutive week next week I will be in a good spot. I need to win in order to give me a chance at qualifying through this tough pool. lords of chaos are still undefeated so I can't overtake them, while my best shot stands against overtaking the cotton guard who I have just overtaken in the overall standings.
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Apr 7, 2014 16:39:39 GMT
After looking at the draw schedule it's interesting that my team and cotton guard both have byes in consecutive weeks, so I will be ahead after this week with the aim to narrow the differential gap so I am not trailing by much after the round I have the bye. Once again, I will say that this later round bye gives me the best chance of maximising my scores as the inevitable eliminations won't hurt my scores so much if everyone has lost a member or two by the round I have the bye and beyond, it's less of a disadvantage. The final round clash will likely determine wheteher I qualify for the finals as my rivalry with the cottoners will most likely see us have a playoff for the playoffs. Of course I will need to keep posting strong scores up until that point to defeat the other teams so that I stay in contention heading into the last round.
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Post by The Ghost on Apr 8, 2014 1:25:45 GMT
Alexis was $1 when you traded her for Morgan. No special powers for your bonus trade, unfortunately.  |
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