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Post by The Ghost on Feb 13, 2015 4:41:39 GMT
TRIBE HISTORY:
Starting tribe: RODNEY, VINCE, Lindsey, Tyler, Joaquin, Jenn, Hali
10/03/2015 0738 - Trade 1 (Sierra IN; Vince OUT), Vice Captain changed: RODNEY, LINDSEY, Sierra, Tyler, Joaquin, Jenn, Hali
21/03/2015 2005 - Trade 2 (Kelly IN; Lindsey OUT): RODNEY, KELLY, Sierra, Tyler, Joaquin, Jenn, Hali
24/03/2015 1641 - Vice Captain changed: RODNEY, JOAQUIN, Sierra, Tyler, Kelly, Jenn, Hali
27/03/2015 1948 - Trade 3 (Dan IN; Joaquin OUT): RODNEY, DAN, Sierra, Tyler, Kelly, Jenn, Hali
07/03/2015 1338 - Mandatory cut (Kelly): RODNEY, DAN, Sierra, Tyler, Jenn, Hali
28/03/2015 0845 - Purchased BFTD Trade (Carolyn IN; Jenn OUT): RODNEY, DAN, Sierra, Tyler, Carolyn, Hali
29/03/2015 1455 - Vice Captain changed: RODNEY, CAROLYN, Sierra, Tyler, Dan, Hali
11/05/2015 1344 - BFTD Trade (Will IN; Tyler OUT): RODNEY, CAROLYN, Sierra, Will, Dan, Hali
| CAPTAIN | VICE-CAPTAIN |  |  |
Click here for current player rankings
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Post by The Ghost on Feb 13, 2015 4:43:46 GMT
BANK BALANCE (you will only have a MAXIMUM of 2 Cordobas left in your account to start the game after your team is purchased):
cordobacoin cordobacoin cordobacoin
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Post by The Ghost on Feb 13, 2015 4:47:52 GMT
TRADES REMAINING: TRADING HISTORY          
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Feb 13, 2015 5:44:28 GMT
ok, I'll just start by essentially an intelligent auto fill.
there's no need to count them as official trades or anything. I'm just running through possibilities.
alight, here goes
#1 Joaquin $1
#2 Lindsey $1
#3 Jenn $2
#4 Tyler $2
#5 Hali $1
#6 Will $4
#7 Rodney $5
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Feb 13, 2015 8:00:09 GMT
with 2 from each tribe needed, tribe selection is very important.
if I get get the best combo, I'll have a shot. if I get the wrong combo, it will be a very long way back.
you can't win premierships preseason, but you can surely lose them.
MUST HAVES- these are who I see as necessary to any team. 1 from each tribe who I can see all surviving the first few rounds, while occupying minimal cap space and increasing their listed value for tidy profits. The key to winning this game is in being able to purchase the extra Back From The Dead Trade, so I'll need to pick people who increase in value, leaving me with cash in hand. In doing so, you put yourself in the position to have all of the F3. Which is very important.
So here's my must haves.
Joaquin- He's going to be brash, outspoken and a bro. Won't be a genius, but he can and should be an asset to the tribe. Hopefully the white collars learn from the mistakes of the Brains tribe and not gun for those who can help them in challenges early. This guy is our version of Garrett.
Lindsey- Bubbly, fun and sweet. This is someone I'd love to play the game with and I'm hoping the blue collars feel that way too. Can see an alliance with Boston Rod in the works. She might not be scoring gold, but she should be safe for a few rounds. Blue collar should be decent in challenges and with Dan potentially more expendable and old guy, at $1 Lindsey is good value.
Jenn- The star of preseason interviews. She sounds fun, fresh and feisty. She has a lot to give. As a cheapie from the No Collars with winner potential, there's no better choice.
GONE COLD- here's the people who are risky pickups. either I think they're a big chance to be voted out early, or they're overpriced.
- Mike - His video made him sound like Dan Kay from Gabon. He's probably going to be overshadowed by Boston Rod, who may either pick him him as a 2nd in command, or target him as a perceived barrier to Rod's leadership, when I expect Mike to be quite passive. Not worth a $5 price tag.
- Carolyn- Comes across as annoying and abrasive. At $3, it's too much of a risk for someone who doesn't seem to be a long term prospect. As well as she seems like she'll be overshadowed by Max, Shirin and Joaq. Consider picking her up after a price drop.
- Joe- What's that Alec Christy? You want your archetype back? This guy should be better than Alec, but still won't get many confessionals. He'll be the definition of middle of the road. Not picking him up until later in the game.
- Nina- Screams first boot. I like her as a person, but is odds on to leave first. Not a bad risk given her $1 price tag, but there are better cheapies
haha I feel like one of those guys who write for the paper about dreamteam selections. Next you know, I'll be doing Buy, Hold, Sell every week
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Feb 15, 2015 11:47:51 GMT
potential team no. 2
joaquin 1
lindsey 1
jenn 2
hali 1
vince 5
rodney 5
this is ideal
only wrinkle in the plan is that I don't have 2 white collars. will look at modifying this setup closer to the start date.
oh actually, on 2nd thoughts, I could swap out hali for tyler.
that leaves me with the single best team I can think of at the moment. regardless of money, I'd pick this team anyway- I'm lucky it worked out this way
likely starting team
Joaquin - $1
Lindsey - $1
Jenn - $2
Tyler - $2
Vince - $5
Rodney - $5
WOW!!!!
That has potential. All it took was tweakage and I've come up with just about the perfect team.
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Feb 16, 2015 0:17:24 GMT
oops. forgot that I need 7 players.
back to the drawing board
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Feb 16, 2015 6:19:20 GMT
okay, I'm getting closer to my ideal team. now with $17 to spend, I can go with my last team and add one more cheapie. Hali is the only sensible choice left. So my team will now most likely look like this for Round 1.
Joaquin - $1
Lindsey - $1
Hali -$1
Jenn - $2
Tyler - $2
Vince - $5
Rodney - $5
that looks like a team which could carry me through quite a few rounds.
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Feb 18, 2015 5:49:41 GMT
Lock in this as my provisional team
Joaquin - $1
Lindsey - $1
Hali -$1
Jenn - $2
Tyler - $2
Vince - $5
Rodney - $5
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Post by The Ghost on Feb 19, 2015 6:59:01 GMT
Tribe selection all good, you need to pick a captain and vc
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Feb 19, 2015 13:11:14 GMT
I might change captain closer to the date. Hopefully there's like a tvgn preview or something so I can get a bit more background.
It's either going to be Vince or Rodney.
I can see Rodney starting with a bang, while Vince is probably a bit more of a steady builder. I can see more people captaining Vince, so with Rodney, I'm playing on the offense. If it works out, I can finish round 1 near the top.
So for now Rodney captain. Vince vc
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Mar 4, 2015 19:17:47 GMT
I'm really happy with my team at this stage. All have a decent chance to stay for a while. Fingers crossed Joaq stays for at least another week- who knows, white collar might even win a challenge. Stability is good at this stage. Preserving trades is key
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Mar 6, 2015 4:04:29 GMT
I was going to do a writeup of predictions last week, so I'll do a quick one now.
I think Rodney will win, Jenn will come in 5th/6th, Carolyn to be the next out from white collar, Joe to come about 8th, Dan to leave first from the blue collar tribe, Lindsey to go deep, maybe FTC or last juror. Sierra to make FTC. Joaquin last prejuror or first juror. Tyler to be the highest placed white collar, potentially 4th. Shirin about 9th. Kelly prejuror- likely a postswap vote out. So she'd finish about 13th. Max about 2nd juror. Mike postswap, premerge.
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Mar 9, 2015 23:38:00 GMT
Trade #1
Vince OUT
Sierra IN
New vice captain Lindsey
I'm now half way to buying an an additional Back From The Dead trade.
That's the key to me being successful. Plus I really expect Sierra to boom soon- she could easily be the next Jaclyn.
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Mar 18, 2015 22:25:16 GMT
I miss my long analyses from other seasons which were mainly rambling, but they were fun and helped me form views on the season. I've just been busy with other stuff, but anyway at this stage, my priority is getting a long term team. I can settle for scores just a bit above average as long as I get a team full of people I see making the end game. I have that at the moment with Tyler, Lindsey, Sierra, Hali and Rodney. I could be wrong, but I can see all of them making final 7.
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