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Post by Bobby Boucher on Nov 27, 2014 13:20:10 GMT
Plus 2 idols played correctly. That might be a Survivor first!
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Nov 27, 2014 13:44:41 GMT
YAYAYA!!!! It paid off. After seeing Jon's idol play, I thought I made a mistake swapping captains, but Reed really pulled through. Wow, that was a big score. I'm now up to 2nd AND in the semi final. Everything's coming up Milhouse  |
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Dec 1, 2014 3:48:09 GMT
It's looking good for The Waterboy at this point, sitting in 2nd and as the #1 seed in the finals series. But, things are completely up in the air with how things will finish up.
This double ep is the key. If I can get all of my tribe through the first elimination, I will be in a top spot. But on the other side, I could quite easily slide out of contention very quickly. Captain selection is important and I first and foremost want someone who has the best shot of not being voted out first ep. Elimination would be detrimental for a captain so early.
So threats of elimination from my team in order - Jon #1
Reed #2
Keith #3
Missy #4
Baylor #5
As a result, I would like to play conservatively and not risk giving up my good spot too easily. The key for me is to switch my captain to Baylor. As we're at the top 8, everyone should get a fairly good share of confessionals- Baylor probably won't top score, but as a hedge against elimination, I would be satisfied for her to finish 4/8 for this weeks double. The double idol play helped me a lot in reducing the downside of a Jon/Keith elim, while Nat's find increases the risk for those who picked her. Plus, Baylor's involvement in the find may well play a bigger part in things as we get down to the wire. It puts her as the new swing. She can either side with Jon/Jac/Missy or with Natalie who might make a move with Alec, Keith and Reed (using the idol), or at F5 (assuming those 3 guys are next out) use the idol to blindside the heck out of Jon or Jac. Or a hybrid of both, I guess. Either way, the idol find binds Baylor and Nat
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Dec 1, 2014 16:57:20 GMT
Note- Teams 1,2,3,4 and 6 all scored either 135 or 136 in week one. While no other teams had either of those scores.
Okay, now it's time for "Whose move is that"
Starting with Reed- His best move now is to target Alec, hard and then to gun for Keith. What he ultimately wants is to be a swinging 5th between Jon/Jac and Missy/Baylor. Heading into the F6, he needs to have shown the others that Natalie is a potential jury threat). Potentially a F7 or 8 blindside of Nat, utilising Alec, Keith, Jon and Jac/Missy may be wise so while there's still going to be numbers to do so as Nat is Reed's biggest threat. Just look at the last immunity challenge, plus the social manouvers which have been going on.
Next up is Missy- Her best move is to stick with Jon/Jac and Baylor to eliminate Reed who can and will look to shake things up. She'd also benefit from ousting Alec as I can't ever see him voting with Missy- I don't think he's done it before and I doubt Alec will look to Missy to fill the void left by Wes. While she must've started becoming wary of Nat lately- from her "WTF Missy" after Jeremy was blindsided, to her giving up rewards and giving idol playing tips to Jon, to her spending increasing amounts of time with Baylor and to top it off, her challenge skills are dangerous for Missy (especially if she's looking at taking Nat deep). It really seems like Nat is Missy's biggest threat bar none. I've been picturing her voting out Baylor for a while now. I very much doubt it will happen, but seriously imagine a F5 of Jac/Missy/Baylor/Jon and one of Nat/Reed/Keith/Alec. Missy convinces the uncoupled player to vote with her and Baylor to eliminate Jon or Jac. Then at F4 Missy flips with either Jon or Jac and eliminates Baylor brutally, while convincing Baylor to vote for the uncoupled player. The vote would be Baylor (2), Jon/Jac (1), uncoupled player (1).
That right there would be one of the biggest moves in Survivor history and would basically guarantee a Missy win.
I'll try to continue these later on. I don't know how much sense I'm making given the time right now.
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Dec 3, 2014 16:08:38 GMT
As a result, I would like to play conservatively and not risk giving up my good spot too easily. The key for me is to switch my captain to Baylor. As we're at the top 8, everyone should get a fairly good share of confessionals- Baylor probably won't top score, but as a hedge against elimination, I would be satisfied for her to finish 4/8 for this weeks double. |
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Post by The Ghost on Dec 3, 2014 22:45:39 GMT
Lol, thanks. Sometimes I'm not sure if you're pontificating or actually making a request.  |
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Dec 4, 2014 13:10:21 GMT
haha yeh, my thoughts aren't very organised, I sometimes have no idea what I'm thinking - or what I'm going to type before I start. It's pretty much just thoughts on the fly- I give things a lot of thought, but the problem is I often don't know what I'm thinking. These pages are just crazy unorganised Survivor thoughts, but I really like having a place which lets me understand what I'm thinking.  |
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Dec 5, 2014 0:19:07 GMT
It's over. Hedging with my captain was the worst thing I could have done, now I'm out of the finals and I'm too far out of the overall standings to win. Sad.
I mean, I never should have taken Jon from captain. I thought that by going with the player most likely to be safe that I'd score well regardless, but the scoring was less even than ever before and this single move has most likely put me out of the running
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Post by The Ghost on Dec 5, 2014 1:11:23 GMT
I'll admit I was bummed for you. :/ You've been my favourite this season with your analysis. Been great to read.
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Dec 5, 2014 1:43:47 GMT
Yeh, I really thought this season was my big chance to win. I pegged Jon as a likely winner early which really helped me, cashed in with Rocker for the first few weeks. I then overcame his massive point drop and scored with Drew for a good week (my biggest risk was having a captain Drew, looking back) while my best trade of the season happened while I swapped Wes for the red hot Jeremy. I was still undefeated for a good 5 or 6 weeks which was great. I then went on to upgrade big time with my swap Drew for Josh. Trading out Alec for Baylor was another smart choice. After he was consistently my worst scorer all season, to get in Baylor while she was underpriced worked out great. My BFTD gave me a second chance and saw a resurgence as I climbed 3 spots into 2nd, while I powered into the semis. But sadly, one move which I thought was smart turned out undoing me. Jon finding an idol and scoring so well sunk me. Not to mention Jax and Nat scoring so well as the only 2 surviving members of the game who aren't in my tribe. It's so hard to win a game like this, I gave my best but fell a bit short. I had fun playing though Thanks for setting up and running the game and letting me play |
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Post by The Ghost on Dec 5, 2014 2:12:07 GMT
Anytime. It's still not over though. Anything could happen! |
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Dec 5, 2014 2:15:28 GMT
Actually, I'm still only in 5th. Pretty much all season I've been in the mix- 4th/5th. If Nat gets voted out with an idol next and actually negatively scores, like Rock did AND others have her as captain like I did, I'm still a shot. I still have 4 actives out of 6. If I make the finale with all of my 4, I should still be able to win. It's not over yet. As long as I captain the winner (I'm still betting on Jon). Fingers crossed everyone else captains up Nat.
Plus, I've got 2 visually expressive jurors in the mix.
It's not over yet...
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Dec 10, 2014 1:36:41 GMT
I haven't been as involved this week, but I'd like to change captain back to Jon. Please let the 4 above me have Nat in their team. Also, just rewatched last week and Alec said mid flirt to Jax 'One of you guys will be with me on the jury' or something. That suggests J/J's plan is to have one of them at the end and one on the jury. Fingers crossed Jon is at the end for my team's prospects (but as a viewer, I'd love either of them to win). I don't think Missy will get evacuated - if it's just for an x-ray, what's the point?? There's like 5 days left.
This week 1 thing has to happen for me. Nat pursues a Jon blindside, she has Keith onboard. She thinks Baylor is onboard (she's not) - getting rid of Alec annoyed her a lot. Baylor tells Missy and Jon of the plan. Keith wins immunity. Votes go Nat, Jon, Jon, Nat, Nat, Nat. Boom! Voted out with an idol. That would keep me in. I honestly think that by pursuing revenge on Jon, it shows that Nat has lost sight of the big picture and so won't win. Maybe it's just wishful thinking though. If that happens, I'll have Jon, Baylor, Keith and Missy still alive and only not Jax.
Missy is actually a gamer and if she gets to the end, I hope she actually pushes her case hard as she has a case to win. Also, my goal of immunity wins has been 100% so far, I believe? Keith, Jeremy, Baylor, Reed, Keith, Jon so that's keeping me alive- the odds are on my side of continuing that streak.
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Post by Bobby Boucher on Dec 11, 2014 12:45:41 GMT
Man, I sucked this week. There goes my prospects after losing immunity, my best scorer get blindsided with an idol.
Captain change for next week- Keith to captain please.
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Post by The Ghost on Dec 11, 2014 13:11:33 GMT
I'll change this tomorrow. If I don't, just poke me. Scores gonna be a bit late this week. |
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