The Waterboy - tribe management area

[Bobby Boucher]

Just some strategy ideas for this season- I've started pretty well and so I'm not planning any trades for the moment, due to reasonably good tribe selection based on playing a couple of seasons already. Alec let me down last week, but based on how well the Vytas/Aras rivalry worked last year, I can't see them missing another chance to build up Alec as the underdog. Rocker did well in that he scored highly despite not being an overtly big character- he may just go deep. Missy and Keith both improved their value nicely and Wes looks like he's doing well also. While I maintain that Jon is in the best shot to win, so I'll keep him for the long haul.
Also, Julie is very attractive. Based on what I've seen from one episode, she's the most attractive player since Andrea. So I'd like to see her make the jury.

[Bobby Boucher]

I'm doing okay so far now that I'm up in the #2 slot and have won both league match ups. Johnny Rock is no doubt carrying me though, he is actually a reasonable player, although his rep clearly changes perceptions. His idol find was huge and if he takes some heat for Val's vote off, that's better for SC scoring due to confessionals gained. Alec has to improve his scores this week or else I'll consider dropping him. A bye week here means that a non mandatory trade is not worth the risks and it means that I can wait and see for a week without consequences in the league.
The only threat to John top scoring is Jeremy as scores generally improve immediately following a loved one vote off.

[Bobby Boucher]

Hmm, that last post sounds much too confident. No wonder things came unstuck. But the good thing is that it happened early, giving me plenty of time to fix it if I'm good enough. I'm going to need to reshape my team, which is why Ive preserved trades as I'm going to be using plenty. My first goal is to ensure I can put up reasonable scores this week, which is going to involve jumping on players I view as short term prospects to give me a quick boost and give me a chance in league match ups. I hope they get more focus now that John won't be getting airtime. While I can trade out voted out contestants freely, I am using the opportunity.
Trade 1- John out
Drew in
The brothers haven't battled for reward yet, so it makes sense trading for him beforehand. Especially as there's not many options. I see Drew as a higher scorer than someone like Jackie or Reed short term. Definitely a trade with the short term in mind.
Trade 2 Wes out
Jeremy in
This is an interesting prospect. Wes has had a few good weeks now and his value has gone up, while Jeremy's value has gone down. This means Wes has scored above his 3 week av, while Jeremy has under performed. I feel like after such a big vote off, Jeremy may gloat along with Josh(who I feel may be in danger now). Plus if Jeremy got less focus last week, now that Rocker is gone I feel like he'll move under the spotlight more. This is potentially a Tony-like trade in given how highly Jeremy has been featured so far. If he becomes unaffordable in a couple weeks, I'd like to have him on my team now. He reminds me of a Russell Hantz/Gervase from s27 hybrid. This is the trade which could keep me afloat for the rest of the season, but if it backfires and Jeremy starts scoring badly, I'll be in a tough spot.
As he's potentially my ticket back to the top, I'm making my captain Jeremy

[Bobby Boucher]

oops, I'm now stacked on Hunanahpu. With only the unreliable Alec on Coyopa.
I don't think there'll be a tribe switch this season (I'd kind of like to see an Ulonging and if they were losing already, voting out their best athlete can't help them), but I'm hoping that one comes up soon as an even split between tribes is usually preferable. A 5-1 split isn't practical long term. I was trying to get the best trades I could have got and at this point in time, I think I did that- but I probably should have been more aware of the tribal makeup of my team. The good thing I guess is that I am almost guaranteed to get points for handing back the immunity idol- which fits into my short term scramble plan for this week. Fingers crossed it pays off and I can scrape together a league win this week

[Bobby Boucher]

Boom!!!!!!!!
Potentially the greatest scoring episode I've ever had. I'd be willing to bet that I top scored. It seems as though my short term scramble approach to the week paid off big time. I burnt a trade, but with 4 in hand before this week, it was worth it. This now puts me in a great position to make up ground in the overall standings, plus being well placed to win my league match up. The premerge is surely coming to a close soon and I would ideally like to not have the eliminated contestant next week as I don't want to be out of trades heading into a merge. But I think it's safe to say that my decision to go out and actively play hard moving into this week has shown that I'm well in the running to win this season.

[Bobby Boucher]

ok, so the question for me this week is who to trade in after drew's dismissal. I want someone from coyopa just to even up the numbers a little more, so I'm more evenly placed. The next question is whether to go with josh or Baylor who are both at 4 cordobas (giving me 2 to spare). I personally don't really like either of them and prefer both of their loved ones, but based on how they've scored, I've worked out that Josh has outscored Baylor by about 10 points so far- so I'm getting a slightly better value trade by including Josh. The other factor which I need to consider is the loved ones duel - neither Josh or Baylor have played for reward yet, but I've already got Missy in my team, so I already have partial coverage there. While I don't have any coverage on the potential Josh/Reed duel. I'm honestly very surprised that Drew's value rose as high as 6 last week and with Jon now highest placed at 5 cordobas and him already on my team I'm hoping to preserve a handy little buffer of 2 bucks for my back from the dead trade, which could prove to be crucial.
Another advantage of trading in Josh is that the ownership of Baylor is roughly twice that of Josh.
So I'm going to trade in Josh and trade out Drew this week. He's spent time on exile, which should give him a little advantage over someone like Baylor heading into a merge or tribe switch. I'll keep Jeremy as my captain as based on my sums, he's outscored Josh by about 4. Additionally, with a potential swap or merge approaching, I predict that Reed may potentially drain a bit of Josh's potential scoring (particularly as Reed hasn't really had an episode where he's scored reasonably). Even despite Rocker's vote off, I'm still in the top 5 and am first in my division. So, if I've made the right choice with my trade this week, I could actually be a contender this season who may not have to rely on chasing down the leaders later on as I have had to do in the past 2 seasons.

[The Ghost]

Trade of Drew for Josh completed.

[Bobby Boucher]

Based on the scores as in the ep 5 thread. So I've got 45+(34x2)+31+30+29+29 which I think is 232.

jon 45
baylor 39
jeremy 34
keith 31
missy 30
dale 30
josh 29
alec 29
wes 24
jaclyn 21
reed 19
julie 19
kelley 17
twin 14

Looks like it should be a decent result

[Bobby Boucher]

Just checking in to check the new player values and it is good to see my pregame favourite as the highest valued player. Also, my team is 6 of the top 8 players at this point, with a value of 22 cordobas with a handy buffer of 2 in the bank. I'm still surprised at how much my fortunes have changed this season. With Kelley voted out, it puts Dale on the outs once again-this time though, I don't think he'll be able to survive it. It was a smart game move for them to oust Kelley as she was undoubtably better connected than her father or Baylor. Thereby increasing the odds of the tribe sticking together at the inevitable merger.
With Jon in the perfect spot at the moment, with everyone except Dale on his side, the focus of no drama (less chance of going home) and being on the tribe down on numbers (more points in the event of an immunity win, the chance of a post tribal council confesh and a greater chance of airtime as a % of his tribe than someone on Hunahpu).
I'll swap my captain to Jon for next week as both Jeremy and Josh are potentially in danger if Hunahpu lose next as post merge threats and as the only couple pairing on the tribe in Josh's case. Changing to Jon allows me to try and avoid losing out by having the odds of my captain getting eliminated drop.

[Bobby Boucher]

nooo, I had an average week and recorded my first defeat of the season. If I had have won this week, I would have been able to lose 2 of my last 3 and still make the finals- but now I've been brought back to the pack and pretty much need a win next week and can only afford one loss in order to make the finals. good thing is though that I've only lost once, am still a top 5 team and I have a lot of power players in my tribe heading into the merge.
Jon and Jeremy are the 2 highest valued players and seem to be the leaders of singles and couples respectively. With Jon and Jaclyn, Missy and Baylor, Wes and Keith and Josh and Reed still in the game, it looks like Jon has the upper hand as by removing Dale last night means that there's an extra couple and 2 less singles. +60 game points for a clever move. Only Julie, Alec, Jeremy and Natalie are remaining singles now. Alec can slide back in with his youngsters alliance members Wes and Baylor if he wants to and so should be safe for the first couple merge votes are made to remove threats. Jeremy is the obvious no. 1 threat being a big, strong guy who is vocal and had everyone under his thumb for the first 3 weeks. But Natalie is just as threatening- she's part of the 3 hunahpu singles too, plus she's closer to Missy than Jeremy is. She wants Jon gone more than likely.
It could be dangerous as anything if Natalie convinces Missy and Baylor after their stint on exile to join the singles as that would leave the numbers at 6-6 with Alec as the swing.
I obviously hope the couples prevail as I have Jon, Missy, Keith and Josh. It would be cool if Jeremy won the first individual immunity as that would really expose what's going on. Anyone can make a play to dislodge a figurehead threat, but it takes a bit more to oust a less obvious target. Plus that would truly reveal whether Baylor and Missy will stick together firstly and secondly, if they're more loyal to Jon or Natalie.
It was interesting that Jon said he wanted to become a power couple at the merge. Sure obvious couples have worked in the past with Rob and Amber, Kenny and Crystal, JT and Stephen, Rafe and Steph all controlling a large part of their season and teaming up until deep in the merge at least while nobody was blind to their alliance, but in a Blood Water season, the stakes are heightened and so I don't think being a power couple is the best way to go. I personally would consider Keith and Wes to be in the true power spot, while nobody out there would recognise it- that's precisely why they are dangerous. Firstly, they haven't shared a tribe so far, so in nobody's mind do they immediately associate Wes AND Keith as a pair as they haven't been seen chatting, walking and comforting each other as each other pair has done. Secondly, they've formed bonds as individuals thus far. Wes has Alec and Baylor in his corner, Keith has Missy in his. Keith has an idol. This is critical as it means that nobody, especially an outnumbered singles alliance (if that's the way it falls) can mix things up. Plus if it does get down to just couples, using an idol at 8 is the perfect time to use it. It lets you dislodge the loved one of the biggest threat and then either align yourself with the new single and form a strong 3, or take them out when you're left with 6. At that point you'd have to back yourself that either you or your loved one would make it to the end.
Keith is no doubt in the best spot at the moment in my mind. People don't view him as a physical threat or a schemer. He has an idol and he is so likeable. The only way I don't see Keith going to the final 5 is if the tribal lines stay strong or if Natalie can convince Baylor and Missy to join the single and Jeremy continues his charge to get Keith out.
Alec is in a position to potentially pull out a Fabio-like win. The longer clear threats can stick around, the better for his prospects of winning the game. Being associated with Drew is going to help Alec by making people more likely to dismiss him as a genuine threat.
Josh isn't in as great a spot as it initially appears. On the original Coyopa the true core of the tribe was Wes, Alec and Baylor. He was linked to everyone, but I'm pretty sure people could see he was playing really hard and doing things like telling your allies you are going to vote one way and then voting for someone else is a sign of that. Baylor sees him as dangerous. And now on Hunahpu, as part of the only pairing, it's played a part in isolating him and potentially preventing him from integrating as well as he may otherwise been able to do. However, the key for Josh as I see it is how well he's been able to develop ties with original tribemates Wes and Alec while on Hunahpu. If he's really focused on solidifying what he had with them early on and been successful, then he's in a good spot. However, I think that he and Reed may well be seen as the most dangerous pairing still in the game based on how hard they both started the game. I heard in Survivor live that Reed started off going around to everyone and spreading gossip about what others had said about people. If you're trying to fracture the tribe before your first vote, it's a sure sign that you're playing a tad aggressively. Combine that with what we've seen with Josh on Coyopa and that they are both pretty good challenge-wise and you've got a dangerous couple.
Julie is someone I see as in a reasonable spot right now- she's tight with Natalie, Jeremy and Missy(preswap), but she's probably perveived as the least dangerous of these players. She plays a good social game and should get a couple rounds to work her charm post merge to try and play a Danni type game and identify a crack in the power alliance and capitalise on it. She's a dark horse to win, I think. I can see her beating a lot of people in front of a jury. She has many potential paths to the end, but one of them is if the alpha players and big threats take each other out, from here on. Nobody's going to be looking at taking out Julie and so while the power players and figureheads cut each other down, she could well be behind the scenes subtly influencing the direction the game takes.
The biggest turnaround so far has been in Jaclyn. She was down and out preswap, in a position with the numbers against her for a long time and without any real influence. Now she's part of an obvious power couple. She's decided the last 2 players to get voted out as well as how they were to get voted out. It will be interesting to see how she reacts to a merge given she pretty much had no allies after Val left and then post swap she's been the deciding factor.

[Bobby Boucher]

YES!! Another win in the Sumo division, I needed that one. Even though I've lost top spot, it's only on percentages and doesn't matter as I'm playing Dolly next round for the minor premiership. Alec bombed it for me though a bit this week, luckily I had the top 5 scorers to compensate. I'm back up to the top 4 and now that we've merged, I think it's safe to say that I have recovered from the Rocker and Drew eliminations, which was something I had a hard time doing in past seasons.

[Bobby Boucher]

I definitely want to use my trade and back from the dead trades to my best advantage. I think I can best do that by waiting an episode or two before using them. I want to see an alliance take power and then trade based on who's likely to be eliminated to prolong my likelihood of having a full team as long as possible. So fingers crossed someone like Natalie, Reed or Wes gets the boot next. Otherwise, if Jeremy or Josh is voted out and becomes first juror, that's badish as it potentially weakens my longevity heading into the playoffs, but it's goodish as the first juror should get enough points the following week to post an average score, which I'm not expecting subsequent jurors to get.
Worst case scenario, I lose someone in 11th, then wait a week (or 2) before trading them out for someone in the power alliance.
Best case scenario, Josh (or Jeremy) win immunity challenge- then Jon and Jaclyn target the side of the immunity winner. This then forces the #2 to be targeted (Natalie or Reed).
I still maintain that Jon is best placed to win. He's funny, smart, athletic and everyone wants him on their team.
I want him as my captain to play it safe. I'm still a pretty top team and so I want to do what I can to avoid risking my captain getting eliminated- it happened once and I don't want it to happen again. By consistently scoring well, I'm a good chance of taking out the title.

Even though I'd like Jaclyn on my team instead of Alec, I'm not risking a wasted trade. Partially as I have the top 5 priced Survivors and I'm waiting for a bit more spread amongst the players. I feel like another merge ep should show us who the smart trades will be. Smartest trade of the season thus far- Wes out for Jeremy

[Bobby Boucher]

ok, so I had a pretty good scoring week - scorewise, but it's not up to what I need to pull out to win my way to the playoffs or to win a premiership. Good news though is that I am still within 100 points of the leader and am still in 2nd despite another loss. I've scored so many points in the premiership, but have also conceded a mountain. As long as the USPS lose, I'm through on percentages, and hopefully as long as I win next week I'm through regardless also as I can't see myself getting slayed big time with the 'big 4' on my team- unless Jon or Keith gets voted out with an idol.
Alec sucks again and with this episode, he proved that he won't Fabio it as he's pretty negative and the women actively dislike him. As a result, there's no incentive to keep the single worst contributor ever. I'm 90% going to trade him out this week- it sparked me in the past and another spark here could see me surge toward the home straight and potentially pull off the double if things pan out well

[Bobby Boucher]

I've got to make a move now to give me the best chance of making something of this season. I'll make a regular trade this week and then my back from the dead trade next week. While I'm still alive in the season, I'd like to offensively use trades rather than being stuck on the defence- so the clear choice this week is Baylor in for Alec. She's in the majority alliance and is a coupled member who hold a 6-4 advantage over the singles. I can't see her going home for a couple of weeks and so having Baylor on my team gives me a better shot of having a full team come finale than Alec who is a single in the minority and who has offended several players. Plus after receiving several votes last time, she's bound to get a night confesh talking about tribal. Also her relationship with Alec could become more in focus if he's next in line
Assuming one of my tribe members doesn't get voted out this week, I'm going to trade out Josh the week after with my bonus trade- thereby allowing me to effectively bypass 2 rounds and boost my total scores in the form of inflated final ep placement scores. I'm keeping Josh in for now based on Sarah's juror scoring last season. He should net me 20-25 points which with my 2 Cordoba buffer should allow me to pick up someone good. I think my experience in this comp will help me as I doubt many of the new players will expect such high scores from the first juror and would be using their bonus trades ASAP. But my play is a safe move as you can't lose points as a juror and you can't get voted out again, so with the Baylor trade and Jon's keenness to keep couples together, I should be safe from another elimination. Fingers crossed Reed, Wes, Alec or Natalie get eliminated next. Actually seeing that boosts my confidence in getting to the F6-7 intact as Reed, Alec and Wes technically should be the next 3 out. This back from the dead trade is basically a TP idol and if this all works to plan, I should be set to really give the front runners a shake up. I'm looking to finish strong

[The Ghost]

So just to confirm, you're trading Alec for Baylor?